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In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.

The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.

Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.

In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.

The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of 2010, the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3.1 percent above its low in the second quarter of 2009 but remained 1.3 percent below the previous peak which was reached in the fourth quarter of 2007.Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

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